Researchers at the University of California, Davis found that up to 16% of global plant species could face extinction by 2100 [1].
This finding challenges the assumption that species can simply migrate to new areas to survive warming temperatures. If plants cannot find habitats that meet all their specific ecological requirements, range shifting will not prevent their collapse.
The study, reported in the journal Science, used ecological modeling to project the future of global flora [1, 2]. The data indicates that between seven and 16% of plant species are expected to lose more than 90% of their suitable range by the end of the century [1]. This loss of habitat puts these species at a high risk of dying out [4].
Some estimates suggest this critical loss of habitat could occur within 55 to 75 years [2]. The researchers said that the ability of a species to move quickly does not guarantee survival. A plant may migrate to a new latitude or elevation, but the new environment may lack the necessary soil chemistry, pollinators, or moisture levels required for the species to persist [1, 3].
These projections are based on current climate-change trajectories [1]. The study highlights a gap in previous conservation models that focused primarily on temperature shifts rather than the complex set of ecological needs that define a viable habitat [1, 3].
Because plants form the foundation of most terrestrial ecosystems, the loss of a significant percentage of species could trigger cascading effects. The disappearance of specific flora often leads to the decline of the insects, and animals that depend on them for food and shelter [2, 4].
“7% to 16% of global plant species are expected to lose more than 90% of their range by 2100”
This research suggests that 'migration' is an insufficient survival strategy for many plant species. While moving toward the poles or higher altitudes is a known response to warming, the lack of compatible ecological conditions in those new areas creates a 'habitat trap.' This increases the urgency for targeted conservation efforts that protect diverse soil and microclimate conditions rather than just geographic corridors.
