Uday Kotak said that India has not yet experienced the full economic impact of the West Asia conflict during the CII Annual Business Summit 2026 [1].
The warning highlights a growing vulnerability to global energy volatility. Because India relies heavily on oil imports, any escalation involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran could drive up domestic costs and trigger inflation.
Speaking at the summit in New Delhi, the founder of Kotak Mahindra Bank said the impact would be “coming big” in the months ahead [1]. He said that while the economy has remained resilient thus far, the delayed effects of rising oil prices are expected to manifest soon.
This caution comes amid conflicting assessments of India's economic stability. Some reports suggest India is relatively better placed to weather the impact of the war, while others argue it is among the countries most severely affected [1].
Kotak said that the nation requires stronger financial discipline to manage the impending shock. The pressure on energy consumption is already visible in some sectors; for instance, India’s LPG consumption has declined by 12.8 percent [2].
The volatility in West Asia continues to threaten global supply chains. As energy costs rise, the burden is expected to shift toward Indian consumers, potentially slowing growth in key industrial sectors.
“The impact would be “coming big” in the months ahead.”
The divergence in expert opinions suggests a tension between India's current macroeconomic stability and its long-term dependence on foreign energy. If Kotak's prediction holds, the government may face increased pressure to subsidize fuel or manage a sharp rise in the cost of living as the delayed effects of the geopolitical crisis materialize.
