Ukraine could lose between $260 billion and $300 billion [1] in GDP, export, and tax revenues by 2035 due to ongoing deindustrialization.

This economic forecast highlights a critical risk to the nation's long-term stability. The scale of the potential loss is estimated to be 1.5 times the pre-war Ukrainian GDP [2], threatening the country's ability to rebuild its industrial base.

Research indicates that the loss is comparable to the annual budgets of Finland or Greece [2]. These figures represent a significant blow to the national treasury, and the overall economic trajectory of the region.

The decline is driven by worsening business conditions that make enterprises unprofitable. If these conditions persist, the country faces a cycle of factory closures and a shrinking industrial footprint.

Labor markets are expected to suffer heavily from this trend. Analysts said hundreds of thousands of people could lose their jobs [2] as industries collapse.

The risk of deindustrialization creates a precarious environment for both domestic producers and foreign investors. Without systemic improvements to the business climate, the shift away from industrial production may become permanent, limiting the country's capacity for future economic growth.

“Ukraine could lose between $260 billion and $300 billion in GDP, export, and tax revenues by 2035.”

The potential for a $300 billion loss underscores a structural economic crisis that extends beyond immediate wartime damage. If Ukraine cannot reverse the trend of deindustrialization, it risks a permanent transition to a lower-value economy, reducing its strategic autonomy and increasing its reliance on foreign aid and imports for basic industrial goods.