UN Secretary-General António Guterres and the World Meteorological Organization said that a moderate-to-strong El Niño is likely to develop [1, 2].
This climatic shift matters because it can intensify extreme storms, flooding, droughts, and heatwaves. Such events threaten global food security, water availability, and economic stability on a worldwide scale [1, 3].
The World Meteorological Organization said there is an 80 percent chance [2] that El Niño will develop between June and August 2024 [2]. The phenomenon originates in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, acting as a primary driver for global temperature increases [1, 3].
"We are on the brink of an El Niño event that could exacerbate the impacts of climate change," Guterres said [1].
The UN said that the expected strength of the event is moderate or possibly strong [1]. This level of intensity increases the likelihood of significant economic disruptions and water shortages as weather patterns shift across different continents [1, 2].
A WMO spokesperson said nations need to prepare for the increasing risk of extreme storms, flooding, droughts, and heatwaves [3]. The organization said that preparation is critical to mitigating the humanitarian impacts of these weather extremes [2].
Because the event is expected to emerge during the June to August 2024 window [2], the UN is urging immediate readiness. The combination of a strong El Niño and existing climate trends could push global temperatures higher than previously forecasted [1].
“We are on the brink of an El Niño event that could exacerbate the impacts of climate change.”
The emergence of a moderate-to-strong El Niño acts as a force multiplier for existing climate instability. By raising global baseline temperatures, this event can trigger a domino effect of agricultural failures and water scarcity, disproportionately affecting regions with fragile infrastructure and low food reserves.
