The World Meteorological Organization forecast the development of a strong El Niño event between May and July [2].
This climate pattern could trigger extreme weather disruptions globally, including severe heatwaves and droughts. Because the OMM describes this event as potentially the strongest in over a century [3], governments and agricultural sectors face increased risks to food security and infrastructure.
Climate models show a clear convergence toward this outcome, leading the agency to issue its warning with high confidence [4]. The OMM said the models point clearly in the same direction regarding the establishment of the phenomenon [5].
According to the agency, there is an 80% probability of an El Niño episode occurring between June and August [1]. While some reports suggest the event may be moderate or strong, other projections indicate it could be the most intense seen in more than 100 years [3].
The OMM said the event should develop between May and July and may intensify in the following months [6]. This window of development places the peak risk period in the middle of the year, though some forecasts extend the risk window through August [1].
The agency's bulletin emphasizes the urgency of climate readiness. The OMM said the high probability of this event necessitates preparation for the resulting extreme temperature shifts, and precipitation anomalies [1].
“there is 80% probability of an El Niño episode between June and August”
A strong El Niño alters global atmospheric circulation, typically leading to drier conditions in Southeast Asia and Australia while increasing rainfall in the Americas. If this event reaches the century-high intensity suggested by some models, it could exacerbate existing climate-driven food instability and strain emergency response systems worldwide.
