The United Nations warned that an El Niño weather system is likely to develop between June and August [1].

This forecast signals a heightened risk of extreme weather worldwide, requiring nations to prepare for potential disruptions to agriculture, water supplies, and public safety.

The warning comes from the World Meteorological Organization, the UN agency responsible for monitoring global climate patterns. According to the agency, there is an estimated 80% chance [1] that the El Niño system will develop during the window from June to August.

El Niño events typically involve the warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, which alters atmospheric circulation globally. These shifts often lead to severe weather anomalies, including intense heatwaves, floods, and droughts, depending on the region.

Climate models further indicate that once the system establishes itself, it is likely to remain active for several months. The UN said there is a 90% chance [2] that the El Niño system will persist until at least November.

Officials are urging communities and governments to implement preparedness measures to mitigate the impact of these events. The agency said the goal is to reduce the vulnerability of populations facing the increased risk of natural disasters associated with the phenomenon.

“There is an estimated 80% chance that the El Niño system will develop between June and August.”

The high probability of a sustained El Niño event suggests a volatile period for global food security and infrastructure. Because these systems shift rainfall patterns, regions typically reliant on seasonal rains may face droughts, while other areas could experience catastrophic flooding, complicating disaster response and economic stability through the end of the year.