The United Nations weather agency warned that an El Niño is almost certain to develop, increasing the risk of extreme weather worldwide.
This development is critical because El Niño's natural warming is being intensified by ongoing climate change. This synergy creates hotter and drier conditions, which elevates the likelihood of severe heatwaves, droughts, and floods across the globe.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the science is clear and that El Niño is arriving on the doorstep in the coming months. He said the world must treat the event as an urgent climate warning, adding that El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.
Estimates on the probability of the event vary slightly among sources. One report indicates a 90% certainty [1], while another estimate places the chance at 80% [2]. Despite the variance, the World Meteorological Organization maintains that the phenomenon is highly likely to occur.
Experts identify the highest risk period as June through August 2024 [1, 3]. While El Niño typically recurs every two to seven years [4], this specific cycle is expected to amplify summer heat significantly.
The impact is expected to be global, though certain regions face heightened vulnerability. Particular concern has been raised for Australia, Africa, and the Americas [5, 6, 7]. These areas may experience more volatile weather patterns as the warming cycle peaks.
Global leaders are being urged to prepare for the volatility. The combination of a strong El Niño and long-term atmospheric warming suggests that traditional weather patterns may be disrupted more severely than in previous cycles.
“El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.”
The intersection of a natural cyclical event like El Niño with anthropogenic climate change creates a compounding effect. While El Niño occurs periodically, the baseline global temperature is now higher, meaning the 'peaks' of these warming events are more likely to reach dangerous thresholds for agriculture, public health, and infrastructure.
