The World Meteorological Organization said there is an 80% [1] likelihood of an El Niño event developing between June and August 2026.

This climate pattern can trigger extreme weather and record global temperatures, posing significant humanitarian risks across the globe. The warming of sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean drives these shifts, which often result in severe droughts or flooding depending on the region.

According to the World Meteorological Organization, there is a 90% [1] chance that the event will persist into at least November 2026. Some forecasts suggest an even higher certainty, with one report indicating a 100% [4] chance of a strong "super" El Niño forming this year.

"There is an 80 per cent likelihood of an El Niño event during June‑August 2026," the World Meteorological Organization said [1].

While the UN focuses on the immediate development this summer, other agencies are looking toward the winter. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center said a "super" El Niño is now the most likely scenario from October 2026 to February 2027 [2].

Such events are characterized by intense warming in the central and eastern Pacific. When these patterns reach "super" status, they can disrupt global agriculture and water supplies, potentially leading to the biggest event since the 1870s [2].

Government agencies and international bodies are monitoring the Pacific to prepare for the associated volatility. The persistence of the pattern into early 2027 could extend the duration of weather anomalies, complicating disaster response and food security efforts globally [2].

“There is an 80 per cent likelihood of an El Niño event during June‑August 2026.”

The transition toward a strong or 'super' El Niño suggests a period of heightened global climate instability. Because these events redistribute heat across the atmosphere, the primary risk is a compounding effect where El Niño's natural warming overlaps with long-term climate trends, potentially pushing global temperatures to new record highs and straining international aid resources.