UN Secretary-General Antonio Gutiérrez said that the El Niño phenomenon could develop in the coming months with a 90% probability [1].

The warning signals a potential escalation of extreme weather patterns. Because global warming increases the intensity and frequency of such events, the UN is urging nations to accelerate climate action and reduce their reliance on fossil fuels [1, 5].

In Colombia, authorities have already begun mitigation efforts. The government of Cundinamarca activated preparation plans across 42 municipalities [2] to brace for the imminent arrival of the weather system. While some reports refer to the event as El Niño, others describe it as a "Super Niño" due to the potential for significant climatic alterations across the region [2, 3].

Timing for the phenomenon varies across reports. Some sources indicate it will develop in the coming months [1], while others specify the highest risk is estimated for the final quarter of 2026, particularly in September [2].

"El Niño could develop in the coming months with a probability of 90% and its effects could be aggravated on a planet that is warmer every day," Gutiérrez said [1].

Local officials in Colombia share this concern regarding the national impact. "It is very likely that the phenomenon will arrive in the national territory," Diego Campos said [3].

The potential expansion of the event in the central Pacific is expected to create volatile weather conditions globally. The UN maintains that the intersection of natural cycles and human-induced warming creates a more dangerous environment for vulnerable populations [1, 5].

““El Niño could develop in the coming months with a probability of 90%””

The convergence of a high-probability El Niño event with existing global warming trends suggests a compounding effect that could lead to more severe droughts or floods than historically recorded. By activating municipal-level plans in Cundinamarca, Colombia is attempting to shift from reactive disaster response to proactive risk management, though the scale of a 'Super Niño' may challenge existing infrastructure.