The United States has imposed a 50% [1] surcharge on specific Brazilian products, with São Paulo and Santa Catarina bearing the heaviest impact.
This development threatens the export revenues of Brazil's industrial hubs. Because a majority of the goods subject to the tariff are produced in these two states, their local economies face the highest risk of disruption.
According to calculations released by Apex Brasil on May 17, 2026 [3], São Paulo and Santa Catarina together account for approximately 50% [2] of all Brazilian exports to the U.S. that are subject to the surcharge. The Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency provided the analysis to identify which regions are most vulnerable to the trade measure announced by President Donald Trump.
While the Apex Brasil data highlights the concentration of affected goods in two states, other reports suggest a broader impact. Some data indicates that São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Minas Gerais are the three largest exporters to the United States overall [2]. This discrepancy suggests a difference between total export volume and the specific volume of goods targeted by the new tariffs.
Lucinda Pinto, an economics analyst and editor at CNN Brasil, said the 50% [1] tariff represents a significant cost increase for Brazilian producers attempting to maintain their market share in the U.S.
“São Paulo and Santa Catarina together account for approximately 50% of all Brazilian exports to the U.S. that are subject to the surcharge.”
The concentration of affected exports in São Paulo and Santa Catarina indicates that the U.S. tariffs are targeting specific industrial or agricultural sectors rather than general trade. While Brazil's largest exporters overall include Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais, the specific nature of the 50% surcharge creates a localized economic shock for the producers in the south and southeast regions.
