The Trump administration reviewed military operations and concluded "war games" to prepare for a possible collapse of the Cuban government [1].
These preparations signal a strategic shift toward maximizing pressure on the island. By coordinating economic sanctions with energy disruptions, the U.S. aims to leverage internal instability to force political change.
Officials said that U.S. sanctions and the blocking of energy supplies have paralyzed the Cuban economy [1]. This economic distress has led to severe power shortages and an increased risk of public protests, which the administration views as a catalyst for regime failure [1].
An unnamed source described the volatile conditions on the ground, noting that heat and power outages lead to spoiled food and public anger [1]. "The weather will be hot, and people have no electricity. If there is no refrigeration, food spoils and people get angry; they may take to the streets. Then what happens?" the source said [1].
This tension follows a history of civil unrest in the country. Large-scale anti-government protests previously erupted across Cuba in July 2021 [2]. The administration appears to be calculating that a repeat of such unrest, compounded by current energy crises, could render the current government unsustainable [1].
Reports regarding these military reviews emerged on June 28, 2024 [3]. The conclusion of the war games suggests that the U.S. has finalized its operational framework for responding to a vacuum of power in Havana [1].
“The Trump administration reviewed military operations and concluded "war games" to prepare for a possible collapse of the Cuban government.”
The U.S. strategy reflects a transition from passive containment to active preparation for a regime change scenario. By linking energy security to political stability, the U.S. is treating Cuba's infrastructure failures not as humanitarian crises, but as strategic opportunities to destabilize the government.
