President Donald Trump is considering declaring victory if Iran fully opens the Strait of Hormuz, even without a new nuclear agreement [2].

The potential move comes as the U.S. seeks a high-profile diplomatic win ahead of the midterm elections. For Iran, the situation involves balancing the survival of its leadership against strict demands for the lifting of maritime blockades.

Iranian state media recently released a 12-second video [1] featuring Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the Supreme Leader. The footage marks the first public appearance of the leader since 2026 [4]. While some reports suggested he had been seriously injured in previous attacks, the video shows no visible signs of injury [1].

Claire Sebastian of CNN said the footage might have been recorded before the conflict began, but noted that the state media release serves as a message that the Iranian regime has not collapsed [3].

According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump has spent several weeks preparing the ground for a victory declaration [2]. Sources said the president has privately told aides he is willing to step back from certain pressures if the Strait of Hormuz is opened [2].

Iran has presented six specific requirements [1] as conditions for lifting the blockade of the strait. This diplomatic dance occurs as internal Iranian dynamics shift; President Ebrahim Raisi's successor, President Masoud Pezeshkian, said his contact with Mojtaba Khamenei has increased daily [5].

Despite the reported willingness of the president to declare victory, the prospect of a formal nuclear deal remains bleak. Multiple U.S. government officials said Monday that the likelihood of reaching a nuclear agreement is decreasing [2].

“The video shows no visible signs of injury.”

The U.S. administration appears to be decoupling the strategic goal of securing global shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz from the long-term goal of a nuclear treaty. By prioritizing the maritime opening, the Trump administration can claim a tangible security win for the global economy before the midterms, while Iran uses the appearance of Mojtaba Khamenei to signal stability and continuity to its domestic audience.