Some experts and U.S. officials say Iran holds the strategic advantage in current negotiations with the United States [1, 2].
This disagreement over leverage centers on the stability of global energy markets and nuclear proliferation. If Iran controls the primary points of pressure, the U.S. may face limited options for coercion without risking a wider regional conflict.
Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator, said Iran holds all the cards in its negotiations with the United States [1]. This perspective suggests that Iran's control over key maritime routes, specifically the Strait of Hormuz, and its regional influence provide significant diplomatic weight [3, 5].
Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) said Iran has a lot of cards during a recent appearance on CNN [2]. Analysis from Al-Monitor further suggests that President Donald Trump does not have the cards on Iran [4].
However, this assessment is not universal. A report from Townhall said Trump holds all the cards in Iran [6]. This contradiction highlights a deep divide between those who view U.S. economic sanctions as a decisive tool and those who believe Iran's geopolitical positioning outweighs those pressures.
To resolve the standoff, some experts have called for face-to-face dialogue [5]. Proponents of this approach say direct communication is the only viable path toward a lasting peace deal, regardless of which side currently holds more leverage [5].
“"Iran holds all the cards in its negotiations with the United States."”
The conflicting assessments of leverage reflect a fundamental disagreement over the efficacy of 'maximum pressure' campaigns versus the reality of Iranian regional influence. While some see U.S. sanctions as the primary driver of negotiation, others argue that Iran's ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz and advance its nuclear program gives it the final say in any potential agreement.
