The United States and Iran have engaged in tit-for-tat strikes that have raised international concerns over a potential escalation of conflict.
These exchanges are critical because they occur in the strategically sensitive Strait of Hormuz, where maritime instability can disrupt global energy markets and trigger a wider regional war.
Recent reports indicate the conflict has reached day 104 [1]. Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz escalated on Thursday after Iranian media reported multiple maritime confrontations involving U.S. and Iranian forces [2]. Additionally, reports have surfaced regarding attacks on a U.S. base in Jordan [2, 3].
Despite the volatility, some observers suggest the two nations are operating in a state of strategic hesitation. One expert described the current situation as a "new limbo period where both sides are neither obeying a ceasefire nor fully fighting" [4].
Jared Mondschein, research director at the US Studies Centre, said the possibility of a larger conflict remains present but unlikely. "This can obviously always escalate; it can go back to an all‑out war… I think that is pretty unlikely," Mondschein said.
Mondschein said the restraint is likely driven by internal politics. He said both actors do not see an all-out war as advantageous to their domestic interests.
This pattern of limited strikes suggests a calibrated approach to deterrence. While both sides continue to project power through military action, they appear to be managing the level of violence to avoid a total collapse of diplomatic channels, or a catastrophic war [5].
“Both actors also do not want an all-out war; they both do not see it as advantageous to their domestic interests”
The current cycle of violence indicates a 'gray zone' conflict where the U.S. and Iran use targeted military strikes to signal resolve without crossing the threshold into a full-scale war. By limiting the scope of attacks to specific bases or maritime skirmishes, both governments attempt to satisfy domestic hardliners while avoiding the economic and political devastation of a total military engagement.
