Parties map paths to victory for November Victorian state election

Victorian political parties are finalizing their strategies for the state election scheduled for November 2026 ^[1].

The outcome will determine if the Labor Party can maintain its hold on power under new leadership or if a shift toward the Coalition or minor parties will reshape the state's governance.

Premier Ben Carroll (Labor) leads the incumbent government into the contest. The race is now less than 100 days away ^[1]. Former Premier Daniel Andrews said he was confident in the current leadership's ability to secure a mandate.

"Ben Carroll can win the election," Andrews said ^[2].

The Liberal-National Coalition is positioning itself as the primary alternative to Labor. Analysts said the Coalition must present a clear policy platform to attract undecided voters. However, the traditional two-party dynamic is facing pressure from the right.

One Nation has seen a significant rise in support leading up to the vote. This surge could potentially split the conservative vote or provide a new leverage point in the legislature.

"One Nation's popularity is riding high, which could reshape the contest," Rachel Eddie said ^[1].

Labor's strategy focuses on retaining existing voter support while establishing Carroll as a distinct leader from his predecessor. The party must navigate the challenges of incumbency while countering the momentum of the Coalition and the rising influence of One Nation.

The path to victory for the Coalition depends on its ability to consolidate the anti-Labor vote. If One Nation continues to grow, the Coalition may find itself competing for the same pool of voters, a dynamic that could complicate its path to a majority.