Political analyst Paulo Waack said the "imponderável," or unpredictable factor, will become the central element in Brazil's 2026 [1] presidential election.
This assessment suggests that traditional polling and political metrics are currently insufficient to predict the winner. Because the race remains volatile, the outcome could shift rapidly regardless of established trends.
Waack, an analyst for CNN Brasil, said that existing data regarding voter intentions and various political scandals have not proved decisive in the current climate. This lack of a clear trend has created a high degree of uncertainty about the final result [1].
According to Waack, the volatility of the political landscape means that the final decision is unlikely to be reached early in the campaign. He said, "Quem vai decidir a eleição só vai decidir nas últimas horas antes das eleições," which translates to the idea that the deciding factors will only emerge in the final hours before the vote.
This unpredictability is not a minor variable but a defining characteristic of the contest. Waack said the situation is "Um enorme grau de imprevisibilidade sobre o resultado final" [1].
In the Brazilian political context, the "imponderável" often refers to sudden events, such as late-breaking scandals, economic shocks, or health crises, that can swing undecided voters in a short window. Waack's analysis indicates that such events will likely carry more weight than long-term strategic campaigning in the 2026 [1] cycle.
“The unpredictable factor will become the central element in the contest.”
Waack's analysis highlights a breakdown in the predictive power of traditional political data in Brazil. By centering the 'imponderável,' he suggests that the 2026 election may not be won through policy platforms or historical popularity, but rather by whoever best navigates—or triggers—a last-minute volatility event.
