Exit poll projections for the West Bengal 2026 state assembly elections indicate a close contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Trinamool Congress (TMC).
The results will determine the governance of one of India's most politically volatile states and signal the influence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi (BJP) versus Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee (TMC).
Voting occurred in two phases during April 2026. Phase 1 took place on April 27, with approximately 3.6 crore voters expected to participate [5]. Phase 2 followed on April 29, recording a voter turnout of 91.36% [6]. To maintain order during the polls, authorities deployed more than 350,000 security personnel [7].
Data from different polling agencies show diverging outcomes for the two primary parties. Livemint projects the BJP will secure between 150 and 175 seats [1], while the TMC is projected to win between 177 and 187 seats [2].
Conversely, Republic World projections suggest a different lead, placing the BJP at 158 seats [3] and the TMC at 130 seats [4]. These contradictions highlight the uncertainty surrounding the final tally as the state awaits official results.
The election has been characterized as a direct confrontation between the national appeal of the BJP and the regional stronghold of the TMC. High voter turnout in the second phase suggests significant public engagement in the decision of who will form the state government.
“Exit poll projections for the West Bengal 2026 state assembly elections indicate a close contest.”
The wide variance in seat projections, ranging from 130 to 187 for the TMC and 150 to 175 for the BJP, suggests a highly fragmented electorate. Because the projections are contradictory, the final result may depend on a small number of swing seats, making the official count critical for determining if the BJP can break the TMC's regional dominance.
