Exit polls project the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will win the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election over the Trinamool Congress (TMC).
These projections suggest a significant shift in power within one of India's most politically contested states. A victory for the BJP would breach a long-standing bastion for the TMC and alter the regional political landscape.
According to data from the exit-poll agency Today’s Chanakya, the BJP is forecast to win a dominant 48% (± 3%) of the vote share [1]. This translates to a projected 192 ± 11 seats [1]. The BJP is led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The TMC+ alliance, led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, is expected to follow with a 38% (± 3%) vote share [1]. This projection corresponds to 100 ± 11 seats [1]. Other parties are projected to capture 14% (± 3%) of the vote share [1], though they are expected to secure only two ± 1 seats [1].
The projections cover various districts including Kolkata, Howrah, Hooghly, Nadia, Purba Bardhaman, and the North and South 24 Parganas [2].
Banerjee has previously raised concerns regarding the electoral process. "We will move court again to resist voter deletions," Banerjee said [3].
The results are based on early trends and projections released this week. The final outcome depends on the official vote count, though the current gap between the two primary parties remains wide — nearly 10 percentage points in vote share [1].
“The BJP is forecast to win a dominant 48% (± 3%) of the vote share”
If these projections hold, the BJP would secure a decisive majority in West Bengal, ending the TMC's tenure in power. The projected gap of 92 seats between the BJP and TMC+ suggests not just a change in leadership, but a comprehensive mandate that could marginalize the opposition in the state assembly.
