Conflicting exit polls follow the conclusion of the 2026 West Bengal assembly elections, with projections split between the BJP and TMC.

The results will determine if the incumbent government secures a fourth term or if the BJP achieves its first-ever victory in the state. The contest represents a high-stakes showdown between Mamata Banerjee (All India Trinamool Congress) and Narendra Modi (Bharatiya Janata Party).

Voting took place in two phases, concluding on April 29, 2026. The second phase covered 142 seats [9]. Voter participation remained high throughout the process, with the first phase seeing a turnout of over 92% [8]. In the second phase, turnout was recorded at 91.36% [6], though other reports cited it as over 91% [5]. To maintain order during the polls, officials deployed over 350,000 security personnel [7].

Seat projections vary significantly across polling firms. P Marq projected the BJP would win between 150 and 175 seats [1]. Conversely, Peoples Pulse projected the TMC would secure between 177 and 187 seats [2].

Other data suggests a different trend. A "poll of polls" from RepublicWorld projected the BJP would lead with 158 seats, while the TMC would take 130 seats [3, 4]. These discrepancies highlight the uncertainty surrounding the final tally in key constituencies such as Kolkata, Howrah, and the 24 Parganas districts.

The election cycle has been characterized by intense competition between the two primary parties. The BJP has sought to break the TMC's hold on the state, while the TMC has focused on maintaining its established legislative majority.

“The BJP has sought to break the TMC's hold on the state.”

The wide variance in exit poll data indicates a highly polarized electorate where small shifts in voter turnout or swing districts could decide the majority. The high voter participation rates suggest deep engagement with the political contest, meaning the final results will likely be viewed as a definitive mandate for either the BJP's expansion into the east or the TMC's continued regional dominance.