Majority of exit polls for the 2026 West Bengal Assembly election project a lead for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) over the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) [1], [2].

These projections suggest a potential shift in power in a state where the TMC, led by Mamata Banerjee, has maintained long-standing political dominance. A victory for the BJP would mark a significant breach of the party's regional bastion [3], [5].

Four surveys give the BJP an edge [1], while two polls favor the TMC [2]. The discrepancy between the surveys highlights a closely contested race across key districts, including Kolkata, Howrah, Hooghly, Nadia, North and South 24 Parganas, and Purba Bardhaman [6].

Seat projections vary widely across the different polling agencies. Matrize projects the BJP will win between 146 and 161 seats [2], while News24online suggests a higher range of 150 to 175 seats [7]. Republic World provides a more specific figure, projecting 158 seats for the BJP [4].

Conversely, the TMC's projected performance fluctuates significantly. People's Pulse predicts the TMC will secure 177 to 187 seats [2]. However, Republic World projects a much lower total of 130 seats for the TMC [4].

Official results for the election are expected on May 4, 2026 [1].

“Four surveys give the BJP an edge”

The variance in exit poll data indicates a highly volatile electoral climate in West Bengal. While the majority of polls suggest the BJP could overturn the TMC's dominance, the wide gap between the highest and lowest seat projections, particularly for the TMC, suggests that the final result could swing significantly based on a few key districts.