Exit polls for the West Bengal Assembly election project a victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) over the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) [1].
These projections are critical as they signal a potential shift in power within one of India's most politically contested states. A victory for the BJP would displace the TMC, led by Mamata Banerjee, and alter the regional political landscape.
Data from different pollsters show significant variance in the projected margins. A Moneycontrol exit poll said the BJP will win 153 seats and the TMC will secure 137 seats [1]. This specific projection suggests a relatively tight race for the 294 total assembly seats [1].
Other forecasts suggest a more decisive outcome. News24Online said the BJP will win between 150 and 175 seats [3]. Further projections from Today's Chanakya said the BJP tally could exceed 200 seats [4]. This same source said the TMC will secure approximately 100 seats [4].
The discrepancy between the polls highlights the uncertainty surrounding voter sentiment in West Bengal. While one source said the race is tight, others said the BJP will defeat the TMC by a huge margin [2].
These polls are conducted to forecast seat distribution based on voter sentiment before official results are tallied [1]. The final outcome will determine which party holds the majority in the 294-seat assembly [1].
“BJP projected to win 153 seats and the TMC will secure 137 seats”
The wide range in exit poll data, varying from a narrow 16-seat lead to a potential 100-seat landslide, indicates a high degree of volatility in the 2026 electoral climate. If the higher projections hold, it would represent a systemic collapse of the TMC's dominance in the state; however, the tighter projections suggest that Mamata Banerjee's coalition maintains a significant base of support despite the BJP's momentum.
