Exit polls released Thursday predict the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will win a majority of seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election [1, 2].
These results signal a potential shift in power in a state long dominated by the Trinamool Congress (TMC). A victory for the BJP would breach a significant political bastion and end the tenure of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.
According to an NDTV exit-poll analyst, the BJP is projected to win 192 seats, with a margin of plus or minus 11 seats [1]. This puts the projected range between 181 and 203 seats [1]. In contrast, the Trinamool Congress is projected to win 100 seats, also with a margin of plus or minus 11 seats [1], creating a projected range of 89 to 111 seats [1]. Other parties are expected to secure two seats, plus or minus two [1].
Pollsters said the projected BJP advantage is due to shifting voter sentiment and anti-incumbency against the long-standing rule of the TMC [1, 2].
Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee (TMC) disputed the projections. "We will win at least 226 seats," Banerjee said [4].
Other officials suggested the projections may not reflect the final tally. "The exit polls are just a projection; the real outcome will be decided on the ground," P. A. Mohamed Riyas said [5].
“The BJP could get 192 seats (plus/minus 11 seats) and the Trinamool Congress 100 seats.”
A projected BJP majority in West Bengal would represent a major realignment of Indian regional politics. If these projections hold, the defeat of the TMC would mark the end of Mamata Banerjee's era of leadership in the state, reflecting a broader trend of anti-incumbency and a successful push by the BJP to expand its influence in eastern India.
