Exit polls for the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election show conflicting projections for the Trinamool Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party.
The results will determine if Mamata Banerjee (TMC) secures a fourth term as chief minister or if the BJP can overturn the current government's hold on the state.
Data released after polling ended on April 29 [1] suggests a potential shift in power. Some exit polls project the BJP will win between 150 and 175 seats [2]. Suvendu Adhikari (BJP) said the party will win over 180 seats [3].
Mamata Banerjee (TMC) dismissed these projections. She said the Trinamool Congress is going to cross 226 seats [4] in the 294-seat assembly [5].
This discrepancy highlights a sharp divide between independent survey data and party confidence. While some projections indicate a slight edge for the BJP [6], Banerjee continues to predict a dominant victory for her party.
The BJP has used the projections to signal a change in leadership. A BJP spokesperson said, "Your game has ended" [7].
Both parties are using the forecasts to claim legitimacy before the official results are announced. The tension follows the conclusion of the second phase of voting, which ended on April 29 [1].
“"We are going to cross 226 seats."”
The wide gap between the BJP's projections and the TMC's claims reflects the highly polarized nature of West Bengal politics. If the exit polls proving a BJP lead are accurate, it would signal a historic shift in the state's leadership. However, the TMC's dismissal of these numbers suggests they are banking on a strong rural turnout that surveys may have underestimated.
