Exit polls for the 2026 West Bengal Assembly election project a close contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Trinamool Congress (TMC).
The results are critical as they determine whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP can finally seize control of a state that has long been a stronghold for Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.
Voting took place in two phases in April 2026 [5]. The state assembly consists of 294 total seats [3].
Different polling agencies provide varying projections for the outcome. One projection indicates the BJP is on track to win 158 seats [1], while the TMC is projected to win 130 seats [2]. Another analysis suggests a broader range for the BJP, projecting a win between 150 and 175 seats [4].
The data suggests a potential shift in the state's political landscape. While some projections show the BJP pulling off a surprise victory to unseat the TMC, other reports indicate the TMC could still retain power despite a narrow BJP edge [6, 7].
The BJP, led by Narendra Modi, continues to challenge the TMC's dominance in the region. The contest remains tight as the state awaits official results to see which party will govern West Bengal.
“Exit polls for the 2026 West Bengal Assembly election project a close contest.”
A BJP victory would represent a major strategic shift in Indian politics, breaking the TMC's grip on West Bengal. However, the narrow margins and contradicting projections suggest a highly polarized electorate, meaning the final official count could result in a hung assembly, or a slim majority that makes governing difficult.
