Exit polls project a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) victory in the 2026 West Bengal Assembly election, potentially ending the tenure of the Trinamool Congress (TMC).
This projected shift represents a significant political pivot in the state, as the BJP seeks to breach a long-standing bastion held by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee (TMC). A victory would signal a major change in regional governance and a shift in voter sentiment across key constituencies.
Voting for the first phase began on April 9, 2026 [1]. While official results are pending, several surveys indicate a strong momentum for the BJP. Estimates for the number of seats the BJP may secure vary across different polls. One projection suggests the party will win between 150 and 175 seats [2]. Other data indicates a more substantial victory, with some projections suggesting the BJP could secure over 200 seats [3].
These figures suggest the BJP could achieve a two-thirds majority in the assembly [3]. The projected "wave" is expected to impact a wide range of state-wide constituencies, including Kolkata, Howrah, Hooghly, Nadia, Purba Bardhaman, and the North and South 24 Parganas districts [2, 4].
"BJP to win 150-175 seats, Mamata Banerjee's TMC may lose power," the News24online editorial team said [2]. Other reports from MSN India said that four exit polls predict a BJP win in Bengal [4].
The actual outcome will be determined when the counting of votes takes place, which is expected in mid-May 2026 [1]. Until then, the TMC and BJP remain in a period of high anticipation as the state awaits the official tally from the Election Commission.
“Exit polls project a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) victory in the 2026 West Bengal Assembly election”
If these projections hold true, the result would mark a historic transition of power in West Bengal. A BJP majority would consolidate the party's influence in eastern India and likely lead to a shift in policy priorities regarding state administration and social welfare programs previously led by the TMC.
