Exit polls project the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will win the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election over the Trinamool Congress (TMC) [3, 5].
The result represents a potential shift in power for one of India's most politically volatile states. A victory for the BJP would end the tenure of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee (TMC) and establish a stronghold for the national party in the east.
The election took place in two phases on April 23 and April 29, 2026 [6]. Voter participation showed a significant increase compared to previous cycles. Turnout reached 85.15% by 5 p.m. during the second phase of voting [1], surpassing the previous record of 80.4% set in 2021 [2].
Projections for the 294 total seats in the assembly vary slightly between pollsters [7]. One exit poll projects the BJP will win 158 seats, while the TMC is projected to win 130 seats [4]. Other data suggests a broader range for the BJP, placing their expected win between 150 and 175 seats [5].
The contest centered on a clash between national BJP leadership, supported by key figures like Suvendu Adhikari, and the TMC led by Banerjee. The high turnout suggests intense public engagement in the contest to determine the next state government.
Official results from the Election Commission of India will confirm these projections. The BJP needs 148 seats to secure a simple majority in the assembly.
“Exit polls project the BJP will win 158 seats, while the TMC is projected to win 130 seats.”
If these exit polls hold, the BJP's projected majority of 150 to 175 seats would mark a decisive break from the TMC's dominance in West Bengal. The record-breaking voter turnout indicates a highly polarized electorate, suggesting that the outcome may be driven by a surge in mobilization rather than a gradual shift in party loyalty.
