Exit polls for the West Bengal assembly elections project a close contest between the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The results could determine whether the state remains under current leadership or shifts toward the BJP, with some projections suggesting neither party may secure a clear majority.

Some surveys indicate a near-tie, with both the TMC and BJP projected to win around 144 seats each [1]. However, other projections are more optimistic for the BJP, placing their potential win between 150 and 175 seats [2]. In contrast, a separate opinion poll shows the TMC holding a slight lead over the BJP [3].

This disparity in polling data has led to varying interpretations of the race. While some data points to a potential hung assembly, where no single party holds a majority, others suggest a more decisive outcome for one of the two major parties.

Analysts have noted that voter behavior on election day may contradict these projections. By 11 a.m. on election day, the voting percentage had already reached 39.97% [4]. This high level of early engagement has led some observers to doubt the closeness of the projected seat counts, suggesting that the final results may be more decisive than the polls indicate [1], [4].

The official results are scheduled to be declared on May 4, 2026 [1]. Until then, the contradiction between the high voter turnout and the tight exit poll numbers continues to fuel debate over the eventual outcome.

“Both the TMC and BJP projected to win around 144 seats each”

The divergence between exit poll data and actual voter turnout suggests a high level of volatility in the West Bengal electorate. If the projections of a near-tie hold true, the state could face a period of political instability or the need for coalition government, a rarity in the state's recent history. However, the high turnout often signals a strong mandate for change or a strong endorsement of the incumbent, which could render the 'hung assembly' projections inaccurate.