Exit poll projections for the West Bengal 2026 Assembly election indicate a close contest between the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
The results are critical as they suggest a potential shift in power within the state, challenging the long-standing leadership of Mamata Banerjee.
Data released shortly after the second and final phase of polling show diverging predictions. Three pollsters gave a slight edge to the BJP [3], with some analysts predicting an upset for Banerjee [1]. One specific projection from News24online suggests the BJP could win between 150 and 175 seats [5], which would mean the TMC may lose power.
However, other data contradicts these findings. People's Pulse predicts a victory for the TMC [4]. This discrepancy highlights the volatility of the electorate in key constituencies, such as Bhabanipur and Nandigram.
Turnout remained high throughout the voting process. More than 61% of the 32.1 million electors had exercised their franchise by 1 p.m. [2]. By 7 p.m., recorded polling exceeded 91% [2].
Despite the high turnout, the process was not without conflict. Voters in areas including Bally, Baranagar, and Hooghly reported chaos, citing an "EVM glitch" [3].
The contest remains a direct battle between the TMC, led by Banerjee, and the BJP, led by Suvendu Adhikari. Both parties have focused their campaigns on regional governance and political stability as the state awaits the official count.
“Pollsters predict upset for Mamata, give slight edge to BJP.”
The conflicting exit polls suggest a highly polarized electorate where small shifts in voter turnout or the resolution of disputed constituencies could determine the majority. If the BJP reaches the projected 150-175 seat range, it would mark a historic transition of power in West Bengal, ending the TMC's dominance and altering the political landscape of eastern India.
