Exit polls project the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will win the 2026 West Bengal Assembly election and overtake the incumbent Trinamool Congress (TMC) [1].
This shift represents a potential historic realignment in Indian state politics, as the BJP seeks to breach the long-standing stronghold of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee (TMC) [2].
According to analysis from News24Online, the BJP is projected to win between 150 and 175 seats [1]. Such a result would provide the party a clear majority in the 295-seat assembly [1]. The projections follow two phases of voting that concluded in early May 2026 [1].
A report from MSN India said four exit polls surveyed across the state point toward a BJP victory [2]. Voting took place across several districts, including Kolkata, Howrah, Hooghly, Nadia, North and South 24 Parganas, and Purba Bardhaman [2]. Polls opened at 7 a.m. [2].
Analysts said the projected surge is due to a shift in voter sentiment and strong turnout [1]. Anti-incumbency against the TMC is also cited as a primary driver for the predicted change in leadership [3].
Data across surveys is not entirely uniform. While most analysts say the BJP is poised to win, some surveys still show the TMC ahead [2]. This discrepancy highlights the volatility of the current political climate in the region [2].
Despite these variations, the consensus among the majority of referenced polls suggests the BJP is likely to end TMC rule [3]. The final results will determine if the BJP can establish a firm foothold in the state's governance for the first time in the current era [1].
“The BJP is projected to win between 150 and 175 seats, which would give it a clear majority in the 295-seat assembly.”
A BJP victory in West Bengal would signal a significant erosion of the TMC's regional dominance and a successful expansion of the BJP's influence in Eastern India. If the projected seat count holds, it suggests that anti-incumbency and shifting voter demographics have outweighed the TMC's established grassroots organizational strength.
