A Today's Chanakya exit poll projects a decisive victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2026 West Bengal Assembly election.
The projection suggests a significant shift in the political landscape of West Bengal, as the BJP is poised to displace the Trinamool Congress (TMC) as the dominant force in the state.
According to the poll, the BJP is projected to secure approximately 192 seats [2], with a vote share of about 48% [1]. The TMC is projected to come in second with roughly 100 seats [4] and a vote share of about 38% [3]. Other parties are projected to capture a 14% vote share [5], translating to approximately two seats [6].
The margin of error for the seat projections for both the BJP and TMC is plus or minus 11 seats [2, 4]. The projection for other parties carries a margin of error of plus or minus two seats [6].
While the Today's Chanakya data suggests a sweep, other projections have varied. Some reports said that most exit polls projected a narrower BJP majority than the one seen in this specific poll.
The results of the 2026 election will determine the leadership of the state assembly. The BJP's projected lead in both seat count and total vote share indicates a strong mandate if the final tally aligns with these findings.
“The BJP is projected to secure approximately 192 seats”
If these projections hold, the BJP will achieve a historic breakthrough in West Bengal, a state that has been a stronghold for the TMC. A victory of this magnitude would signal a broader realignment of voter sentiment in eastern India and potentially consolidate the BJP's influence over the region's administrative and legislative functions.
