An exit poll by Today's Chanakya predicts the BJP will win approximately 192 seats in the West Bengal Assembly election [1].

The projection suggests a significant political shift in the state, potentially breaching the stronghold of the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and altering the regional power balance.

According to the poll released this week, the BJP is projected to secure 192 seats [2]. The TMC is expected to win about 100 seats [2]. Other parties are projected to win roughly two seats, with a margin of plus or minus two [1].

The data indicates a Trinamool Congress vote share of 38% [1]. While the Today's Chanakya poll shows a decisive BJP lead, other reports summarize the projection for the BJP as ranging between 150 and 175 seats [3].

These figures come as the state awaits the official results. Vote counting is scheduled for May 4, 2026 [1].

The polling company conducted the survey to forecast voter preferences and seat allocations before the final count. The BJP's projected surge would represent a major breach of the fortress held by TMC leader Mamata Banerjee [2].

“The BJP is projected to secure 192 seats”

If these projections hold, the result would mark a historic transition of power in West Bengal. The shift from the TMC to the BJP would signal a significant change in the state's administrative and political direction, reflecting a broader trend of BJP expansion into eastern India.