Exit polls project the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may secure a majority or a significant advantage in the West Bengal Assembly elections [1].
These projections suggest a potential shift in power in one of India's most politically volatile states. If the results hold, the BJP could end the long-standing dominance of the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and reshape the regional governance of West Bengal.
Voting took place in multiple stages, with Phase 1 occurring on April 23, 2026, and Phase 2 on April 29, 2026 [2]. Voter turnout in the initial phases was reported to be over 90 percent [3].
Data from survey agencies vary on the exact scale of the BJP's lead. One projection suggests the BJP could secure 180 seats [4], while another predicts a range between 150 and 175 seats [5]. However, other reports suggest a different outcome, with some indicating a hung assembly that would represent a setback for TMC leader Mamata Banerjee [6].
"Four exit polls are favouring the BJP to win the elections and form the government," a report from MSN India said [1].
The Trinamool Congress has rejected these findings. The party dismissed the predictions by citing past inaccuracies in polling data, and expressed confidence in its own support base [3].
Discrepancies remain among the reporting agencies regarding the structure of the election. Some reports state the elections were conducted in two phases [2], while others describe the process as a five-phase state election [6]. Additionally, while some polls indicate a clear BJP path to victory, other sources describe a close fight with no clear majority indicated [7].
Despite the conflicting projections, the high voter participation underscores the intensity of the contest for the 142 seats contested in the assembly [8].
“Four exit polls are favouring the BJP to win the elections and form the government.”
The divergence between exit polls and the TMC's confidence reflects a high-stakes political environment where polling accuracy has historically been questioned. A BJP victory would signal a major ideological shift in West Bengal, whereas a hung assembly would likely lead to protracted coalition negotiations and political instability.
