Exit polls project the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will win a majority of seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly [1].
These projections suggest a potential shift in power in one of India's most contested political landscapes, challenging the long-standing dominance of the Trinamool Congress (TMC) led by Mamata Banerjee [1].
Voting for the 294-member assembly [9] took place in two phases on April 23 and April 29, 2026 [10]. Following the conclusion of polling, analytics firm Today’s Chanakya released data forecasting voter preferences across districts including Kolkata, Howrah, and North and South 24 Parganas [1, 4].
The Today’s Chanakya forecast predicts the BJP will secure a vote share of 48% ± 3% [1]. This translates to a projection of 192 ± 11 seats [2]. Other reports provide varying estimates for the BJP's performance; News24online projected between 150 and 175 seats [7], while BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari said the party would win over 180 seats [8].
In contrast, the TMC+ coalition is projected to receive a vote share of 38% ± 3% [3], resulting in an estimated 100 ± 11 seats [4]. Other parties are forecast to capture 14% ± 3% of the vote share [5], though they are projected to win only two ± ? seats [6].
The discrepancies in seat projections, ranging from 150 to over 190 for the BJP, highlight the volatility of exit polling in the region. However, the consensus among these specific projections is that the BJP is positioned to outpace the TMC in the final count.
“Exit polls project the BJP will win a majority of seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly.”
A BJP victory in West Bengal would represent a significant breach of the TMC's political bastion. If these projections hold, the result would signal a major shift in regional voter sentiment and potentially alter the balance of power in eastern India, ending the tenure of Mamata Banerjee as chief minister.
