The World Meteorological Organization and climate scientists warn that a developing El Niño is forecast to trigger extreme weather worldwide in 2026.
This development is critical because climate change is projected to amplify the event's effects by raising baseline temperatures and altering atmospheric patterns. The synergy between a natural cycle and human-induced warming could lead to unprecedented weather volatility.
Forecasters estimate an 80 percent probability [1] of an El Niño event occurring between June and August 2026. There is a further 90 percent probability [1] that the event will persist until at least November 2026.
Experts said that a "super El Niño" in 2026 could push global temperatures past 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels [2]. Such a spike would mark a significant breach of international climate targets and increase the frequency of heatwaves and droughts.
The impacts are expected to be felt globally, with specific risks identified for the U.S. and India. In India, the phenomenon is linked to a weaker monsoon, higher temperatures, and increased water stress [3]. These conditions threaten agricultural productivity and water security in the region.
In the U.S., the event is expected to influence weather patterns, including the monsoon season in regions like California [4]. The shifting atmospheric currents typically associated with El Niño can lead to erratic precipitation patterns across the North American continent.
Climate scientists said that the baseline warming of the planet makes these events more severe. By increasing the overall heat in the ocean and atmosphere, the natural oscillation of El Niño creates a more volatile environment for global weather systems.
“A developing El Niño is forecast to trigger extreme weather worldwide in 2026.”
The convergence of a strong El Niño with long-term global warming creates a compounding effect. While El Niño is a natural periodic warming of the Pacific, the elevated baseline temperature of the planet means the resulting weather extremes—such as droughts in Asia and floods in the Americas—are likely to be more intense than historical averages. This increases the risk of food insecurity and puts additional pressure on global infrastructure.
