The World Meteorological Organization warned today that El Niño conditions are developing and will likely trigger extreme weather events worldwide.

This development is critical because El Niño alters atmospheric and oceanic circulation. These shifts increase the global risk of devastating heatwaves, floods, droughts, and wildfires.

Celeste Saulo, the Secretary-General of the WMO, said there is an 80% probability [1] that El Niño conditions will emerge between June and August. That probability is expected to increase to 90% [1] by September.

A spokesperson for the UN weather agency said the organization forecasts a moderate or possibly strong El Niño [2]. This phenomenon could drive up global temperatures and heighten the risk of extreme weather over the coming months [2].

While the WMO reports high confidence in the timing, other forecasts vary. Some meteorologists said there is a 62% probability [3] of El Niño formation by summer, though they noted a risk of a more intense event [3].

The El Niño phenomenon originates in the tropical Pacific [1, 2]. Once established, the warming of surface waters in this region disrupts weather patterns across the globe, often leading to erratic precipitation and temperature spikes.

Saulo said the emergence of these conditions is highly probable during the current window [1]. The agency continues to monitor the tropical Pacific to refine the strength and duration of the event.

“There is an 80% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between June and August”

The predicted emergence of a strong El Niño coincides with a period of rising global baseline temperatures. This creates a compounding effect where natural climate variability amplifies existing warming trends, potentially leading to record-breaking heat and more volatile agricultural yields globally.