The World Meteorological Organization and climate scientists warn that a forming El Niño is expected to cause extreme weather worldwide [1].
This development is critical because global warming is amplifying these natural cycles. Scientists said climate change makes these events stronger, more far-reaching, and more damaging to global infrastructure and populations [2, 3].
A spokesperson for the World Meteorological Organization said, "The El Niño weather pattern is forming, and is expected to cause extreme weather around the world this year" [1]. This initial wave of disruption was projected for 2024 [1]. The Climate Prediction Center said El Niño was likely to emerge soon during that period [2].
However, the long-term outlook suggests a more severe trajectory. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued a warning regarding the 2026 El Niño [4]. Officials from NOAA said a dangerous "double whammy" could hit in 2026 if the El Niño strengthens [4].
These patterns involve the warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, which disrupts atmospheric circulation. While El Niño is a recurring natural phenomenon, the baseline temperature of the planet has risen due to human-induced climate change [3]. This shift means that the resulting floods and droughts are no longer occurring in a stable environment, they are layered on top of an already warming world [3].
The discrepancy between immediate and long-term warnings highlights the volatility of current climate models. While 2024 saw the initial formation of the pattern [1], the potential for a more catastrophic event in 2026 indicates that the cycle may be intensifying over time [4].
“"The El Niño weather pattern is forming, and is expected to cause extreme weather around the world this year."”
The intersection of periodic El Niño cycles with systemic global warming creates a feedback loop that increases the severity of natural disasters. By shifting the baseline temperature, climate change ensures that each subsequent El Niño event has the potential to be more destructive than the last, complicating international efforts to manage food security and disaster response.
