The World Meteorological Organization reported an 80% chance [1] of an El Niño event developing between June and August.

This forecast is critical because the phenomenon can drive global temperatures higher and increase the frequency of extreme weather events. Such shifts often disrupt agriculture and water security across multiple continents, requiring governments to implement urgent preparedness measures.

Celeste Saulo, the WMO Secretary-General, said the update from the organization's headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland. Saulo said, "We are seeing a moderate to possibly strong El Niño developing, which could increase global temperatures and the risk of extreme weather."

According to the WMO, the probability of the event persisting into November is near or above 90% [2]. While some reports describe the developing event as moderate to strong [3], other forecasts suggest a "super" El Niño could develop by mid-2026 [4].

Wilfren Moufouma Okia, the WMO Chief of Climate Prediction, said the specific regional impacts of a high-intensity event. Okia said a super El Niño forecast for mid-2026 would have major implications for monsoon rainfall in South Asia [4].

The timing of the event's emergence varies across reports. Some data indicates El Niño conditions could emerge as early as May 2026 [5], while other indicators focus on the immediate window between June and August [1]. The WMO is alerting the public to ensure that disaster risk management strategies are aligned with these projections.

“There is an 80% chance of El Niño developing between June and August.”

The disparity in timing and intensity forecasts—ranging from a moderate event this year to a 'super' event in 2026—suggests a period of prolonged climatic instability. For global policymakers, this means that short-term emergency response must be coupled with long-term infrastructure resilience, particularly in South Asia where monsoon volatility can trigger widespread food insecurity.