The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) expects El Niño conditions to develop from as early as May 2026 [1].

This shift in Pacific Ocean temperatures matters because it can trigger extreme weather worldwide. The phenomenon often intensifies heatwaves, droughts, and floods, which can disrupt global agriculture and water security.

Scientists in Geneva, Switzerland, noted that warming sea-surface temperatures and model projections indicate conditions are becoming favorable for the event [2]. A WMO spokesperson said, "El Nino weather conditions are likely to develop from as early as May 2026, potentially affecting global temperatures and rainfall patterns" [1].

While some forecasts point to a start this month, other projections suggest a development window between May and July 2026 [2]. Some analysts expect these conditions to persist throughout the remainder of the year [3].

There is some variation in the projected intensity and timing of the event. While the WMO focuses on a mid-year onset, other reports suggest a "super El Niño" could develop by late fall 2026 [2].

An El Niño event is expected to develop from the middle of this year, impacting global temperature and rainfall patterns, according to the World Meteorological Organization [4]. These periodic warmings of the Pacific sea-surface temperatures create a ripple effect across the atmosphere, altering how moisture and heat move across the planet.

“El Nino weather conditions are likely to develop from as early as May 2026”

The emergence of El Niño typically correlates with an increase in global average temperatures. For policymakers and agricultural sectors, this forecast serves as a critical early warning to prepare for volatile precipitation patterns, which can lead to crop failures in some regions and catastrophic flooding in others.