The World Meteorological Organisation issued a warning predicting a 90 percent [1] chance of El Niño developing in 2026.
This climate phenomenon is expected to bring drier and warmer conditions to Australia. Such shifts often increase the risk of drought and wildfires, impacting agriculture and water security across the region.
According to a report released April 15, 2026, rising ocean temperatures and favorable atmospheric conditions have created the necessary ingredients for a moderate-to-strong event [1], [2], [3]. While an official event has not been declared yet, forecasters said the ingredients are there [3].
"It’s unusual for El Niño to develop this year and Australia should expect drier and warmer conditions," Mandy Freund said.
Recent forecasts point to a high likelihood of this moderate to strong El Niño developing within the year [2]. The phenomenon originates in the Pacific Ocean, where surging temperatures disrupt global weather patterns, leading to the predicted instability in the Southern Hemisphere [1], [2].
Authorities are monitoring the situation as the Pacific region continues to experience the warming trends that trigger these events. The WMO report suggests that the probability of the event is now nearly certain [1].
“The World Meteorological Organisation issued a warning predicting a 90 percent chance of El Niño.”
A moderate-to-strong El Niño event typically disrupts rainfall patterns in Australia, leading to prolonged dry spells. When combined with rising ocean temperatures, this increases the vulnerability of the region to extreme heatwaves and agricultural failure, necessitating early preparation for disaster management and water conservation.
