The World Meteorological Organization warned that the world will experience its worst heat on record within the next five years [1].
This projection indicates that the global climate is accelerating toward a critical tipping point, threatening international efforts to limit warming. The risk is particularly acute for East Asia and the Korean Peninsula, where temperature spikes could disrupt infrastructure and public health.
According to the WMO and climate scientist Melissa Sibrook, there is an 86% probability that at least one year in the next five will exceed the temperatures seen in 2024 [1]. The 2024 global average temperature was 1.55 °C above pre-industrial levels [1], which surpassed the 1.5 °C threshold that international climate policy aims to avoid.
Regional projections show an even higher risk in certain areas. The probability that East Asia will exceed 2024 temperature levels within the next five years is 92% [1]. For South Korea specifically, the probability of surpassing those 2024 extremes is 68% [1].
Data regarding the Korean Peninsula suggests a significant upward trend in warming. The WMO projected an average temperature increase for the peninsula of 1.48 °C above the historical average over the next five years [1].
Melissa Sibrook, a co-author of the report, said the data suggests that the record-breaking heat of 2024 was not an isolated anomaly but a precursor to a more volatile climate pattern.
“There is an 86% probability that at least one year in the next five will exceed the temperatures seen in 2024.”
The breach of the 1.5 °C threshold marks a pivotal shift in climate science, moving the conversation from prevention to adaptation. With East Asia facing a higher probability of extreme heat than the global average, the region may experience intensified heatwaves that outpace current urban cooling infrastructure and agricultural resilience.
