Chinese President Xi Jinping asked U.S. President Donald Trump if the two nations could avoid the "Thucydides Trap" during a summit [1].
The exchange highlights the precarious nature of the bilateral relationship, specifically the risk that mismanagement of issues like Taiwan could lead to direct military clashes [1, 2]. By invoking this historical theory, Xi pointed to the danger facing a rising power and an established power destined for war [1, 3].
The meeting took place in Beijing on Thursday, Nov. 12, 2017 [1, 2]. During the summit, Xi said, "The world has come to another crossroads" [1]. He used the concept to prompt both sides to find a way to prevent the conflict that typically occurs when a new power challenges the existing global order [1, 2, 3].
The Thucydides Trap is a framework often used by analysts to describe the intensifying rivalry between the U.S. and China [3]. It suggests that the structural stress of a shifting balance of power makes war a likely outcome [3].
However, the inevitability of such a conflict is debated among experts. Some analysts suggest that the logic of inevitable war may no longer hold in a world where both powers possess nuclear weapons [4]. This nuclear deterrent creates a different strategic environment than the ones observed in the historical examples that define the trap [4].
Xi asked, "Can the two powers avoid the 'Thucydides Trap'?" [1]. The question serves as a reminder of the high stakes involved in the diplomatic, and economic competition between the world's two largest economies [1, 2].
“"Can the two powers avoid the 'Thucydides Trap'?"”
The invocation of the Thucydides Trap by a head of state signals a formal recognition of structural instability in international relations. While the theory suggests that conflict is a historical pattern, the presence of nuclear arsenals introduces a layer of mutual deterrence that may override traditional geopolitical trajectories, shifting the focus from inevitable war to the necessity of crisis management.
