The Bank of Canada released its quarterly Market Participants Survey on Nov. 9, 2026, showing respondents expect the policy rate to stay at five percent through 2023.
The outlook matters because the policy rate influences borrowing costs for households and businesses, shaping inflation trends and economic growth. If rates remain steady, consumers may face unchanged mortgage payments while firms can plan investments without anticipating higher financing costs – a factor that could temper inflation pressures ahead of the central bank’s next decision.
The survey, conducted quarterly, was published at 10:30 ET on the stated date【1】. It gathers views from a broad cross‑section of financial‑market participants, including banks, asset managers, and trading firms, to gauge expectations on key macro‑economic variables and monetary policy【1】.
A clear majority, roughly three‑quarters of respondents, said they expect the Bank of Canada to keep the policy rate at five percent throughout 2023, with no additional hikes anticipated【2】. The same group projected that any rate cuts would likely come after the calendar year, reflecting confidence that current tightening is sufficient to bring inflation back to target.
The Bank of Canada designed the survey to capture forward‑looking sentiment that can complement its own economic models【1】. By publishing the results, the central bank offers transparency into market expectations, helping policymakers assess whether their communication is being well‑received and whether the current stance aligns with broader financial‑sector forecasts.
Analysts said that while the survey shows broad consensus, it does not guarantee future policy moves. Unexpected shocks to the labour market or commodity prices could shift expectations, prompting the Bank to adjust its stance faster than participants anticipate.
**What this means** – The steady‑rate outlook suggests markets view the current five percent level as adequate to curb inflation without stalling growth. If the Bank of Canada maintains this stance, borrowers may see stable loan costs while investors watch for any data‑driven cues that could trigger cuts later in the cycle.
“Most participants see the rate holding steady at 5% throughout 2023.”
The steady‑rate outlook suggests markets view the current 5% level as adequate to curb inflation without stalling growth. If the Bank of Canada maintains this stance, borrowers may see stable loan costs while investors watch for any data‑driven cues that could trigger cuts later in the cycle.
