A new report warns that hundreds of thousands of jobs on both sides of the Canada-U.S. border are at risk due to CUSMA renegotiations.
The outcome of these talks will determine market access, investment flows, and supply-chain stability. Because these factors directly affect employment levels, the results could reshape the economic relationship between the two nations.
The Canadian American Business Council released the report on Tuesday. It outlines three possible outcomes for the renegotiations of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). The findings highlight the vulnerability of integrated industries that rely on seamless border crossings.
According to the report, a failure in the renegotiations could lead to the loss of 102,000 jobs [1]. This potential employment drop reflects the deep interdependence of the North American labor market, particularly in manufacturing and automotive sectors.
Financial stakes are equally high. The council's data indicates that the economic loss resulting from failed talks could reach approximately $1 trillion [1]. Such a contraction would likely impact GDP growth in both countries and disrupt long-term corporate investment strategies.
Beth Burke, CEO of the Canadian American Business Council, said the report outlines the economic impact of the potential outcomes. The council said that the stability of the trade agreement is essential for maintaining current levels of cross-border commerce.
Industry leaders said that the negotiations will focus on rules of origin and labor standards. If the parties cannot reach a consensus, the risk of tariffs or restricted market access increases, which would trigger the losses cited in the report.
“Hundreds of thousands of jobs on both sides of the Canada-U.S. border are at risk.”
The scale of the projected losses underscores how heavily the North American economy relies on the CUSMA framework. A failure to renegotiate effectively would not just be a diplomatic setback but a systemic economic shock, potentially forcing companies to decouple supply chains and relocate production to avoid tariffs.
