Economist Arvind Panagariya said India can still achieve a growth rate of about six percent [1] despite current global economic turbulence.
This projection comes as conflict in West Asia creates volatility in energy markets. Because India relies heavily on imported oil, spikes in prices and accompanying inflation fears threaten to slow domestic momentum and disrupt trade balances.
In an exclusive interview with NDTV, Panagariya said the risks associated with the West Asia conflict are significant. He said that rising global oil prices and broader economic uncertainty are the primary drivers of the current instability. Despite these headwinds, he said that the Indian economy possesses the resilience to sustain a six percent [1] growth trajectory.
Other international monitors provide slightly different outlooks for the region. The World Bank projects India's growth at 6.6% [2] for fiscal year 2027, though it said that risks to this projection are skewed to the downside [2].
The tension between these figures highlights the precarious nature of the current global economy. While Panagariya suggests a baseline of six percent [1] is achievable, the World Bank's higher estimate of 6.6% [2] reflects a more optimistic baseline that remains vulnerable to external shocks. Both perspectives agree that the conflict in West Asia remains the most significant variable for the near term.
Panagariya said the ability to navigate these pressures depends on managing inflation, and mitigating the impact of volatile energy costs on the industrial sector.
“India can still grow at 6% despite global turbulence”
The divergence between Panagariya's 6% estimate and the World Bank's 6.6% projection suggests a narrow window of economic stability. If India can maintain growth at or above 6% while facing oil shocks, it reinforces the narrative of the country as a primary engine of global growth during a period of systemic instability in the West Asia region.
