Ali Asghar Araghchi, spokesperson for Iran's Foreign Ministry, warned that the United States will bear a heavy economic price if it engages in war.
The warning highlights the potential for regional instability to disrupt global energy supplies, which could destabilize the U.S. economy through sudden price shocks.
During a press briefing in Tehran in October 2024, Araghchi said that the United States will bear the economic consequences of any war with Iran [1]. He said a conflict would disrupt global oil markets, raise energy prices, and trigger inflationary pressures.
According to reports from the briefing, a war could lead to a potential rise in global oil prices of $10 to $15 per barrel [1]. Such an increase in energy costs is estimated to raise the U.S. inflation rate by 0.5 percentage points [1].
Iranian officials emphasized that these economic burdens would fall directly on the American public. A spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry said Iran will defend itself against any aggression and that the United States must understand the costs of such a confrontation [2].
The statements come as a response to regional tensions and the possibility of direct military engagement. The Iranian government is using these economic projections to signal that the risks of war extend beyond the battlefield, affecting domestic financial stability in the U.S. through the global oil trade.
“The United States will bear the economic consequences of any war with Iran.”
Iran is utilizing economic deterrence by framing a potential conflict not just as a military risk, but as a financial liability for the U.S. government and its citizens. By citing specific oil price increases and inflation markers, Tehran aims to create domestic political pressure within the U.S. to avoid escalation, leveraging the sensitivity of the American economy to energy volatility.
