Deep mistrust between the U.S. and Iran may cause current diplomatic negotiations to collapse before a ceasefire period ends [1].
The potential failure of these talks threatens regional stability and the continued viability of a fragile truce. If the negotiations fail, the risk of renewed hostilities in critical maritime corridors increases.
Mostafa Khoshcheshm, a professor at the University of Applied Sciences in Tehran, said a lack of trust could lead to the collapse of the negotiations before the end of the 60-day ceasefire period [1]. He said that past U.S. actions and alleged breaches of the current ceasefire have deepened Iranian skepticism regarding the sincerity of Washington.
Khoshcheshm said that the U.S. is not pursuing a comprehensive diplomatic resolution. He said, "It is clear that the [US] just wanted to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, nothing beyond that" [1].
This focus on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil shipments, suggests a narrow strategic objective rather than a broad peace agreement. The analyst said that this limited scope makes it unlikely that the U.S. will honor the broader terms of any potential deal [1].
The current diplomatic window is constrained by the 60-day timeline [1]. With the ceasefire clock ticking, the gap between Iranian expectations for long-term security and U.S. priorities for maritime access remains wide.
Khoshcheshm said the history of broken promises has left Tehran doubtful that the U.S. will keep its end of a bargain [1]. Without a mechanism to rebuild this trust, the ceasefire may serve as a temporary pause rather than a bridge to a lasting agreement.
“A lack of trust could lead to the collapse of the negotiations before the end of the 60-day ceasefire period.”
The analysis suggests that the U.S. and Iran are operating with divergent goals: Washington is prioritizing the immediate economic and logistical necessity of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, while Tehran is seeking broader guarantees and trust-building measures. Because the ceasefire is time-limited to 60 days, the lack of a shared objective increases the likelihood that the parties will return to confrontation once the window expires.
